Will ASM Clermont Auvergne win?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will ASM Clermont Auvergne win?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an exceptionally wide 88¢ spread despite only $50.65 in open interest, suggesting minimal trader participation.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an exceptionally wide 88¢ spread despite only $50.65 in open interest, suggesting minimal trader participation. The astronomical implied yield of 2909.3% on both sides is a red flag indicating the pricing model is breaking down due to the thin liquidity and near-term expiry (13 days to close, with the game scheduled for April 25). The neutral regime score and cliff risk index of 1 suggest heightened uncertainty around resolution, potentially due to postponement risk or ambiguity in the game scheduling.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If ASM Clermont Auvergne wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf00b104617d77933207ca97eacac33e633ad1514c5cbfd1dc2a8951672c9d0a8 yes 100