USA to win Turkiye vs USA
USA is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Turkiye vs USA Winner.
Price history
39¢ current
+35¢Contract brief
If USA wins the Turkiye vs USA professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
USA
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
USA 36¢
Range
27¢-36¢
Family volume
$138
Identifier
KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA-USA
May 27, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$7
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Turkiye vs USA Winner
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Family volume
$138
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If USA wins the Turkiye vs USA professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA-USA
Event family
Turkiye vs USA Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$138
Outcomes
3
Highest price
USA 36¢
Current share
5%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.