SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets — 6 contracts, SF signal on every row.

6 live Kalshi contracts (161 audited). Median implied probability sits at 31%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 3.2pp · cheapest KXWCGAME-26JUL15ENGARG-ARG · richest KXWCGAME-26JUL14FRAESP-FRA.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXWCGAME.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXWCGAME
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXWCGAME
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXWCGAME",
    "label": "2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 6,
    "volume24hSum": 634639.66,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.02275
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 12 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 20:30 UTC
Vol Flow$634.6K+1%
min $70.9Kmax $1.3M
Breadth100%0.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 20:30 UTC
Jul 5past 7d · UTCJul 12 · 18:23

Live contracts

6

Median IY

31¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$634.6K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets — liquidity topography (6 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 3292.7 → 5601.9%

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d5601.94447.33292.7

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets

Showing top 6 of 6

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

France vs Spain Winner?: Reg Time: France41¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$404.2K
France vs Spain Winner?: Reg Time: Tie29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$105.4K
France vs Spain Winner?: Reg Time: Spain29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$43.1K
England vs Argentina Winner?: Reg Time: England36¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$31.8K
England vs Argentina Winner?: Reg Time: Argentina30¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$25.2K
England vs Argentina Winner?: Reg Time: Tie32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$25.0K
6 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 Jul 2026 20:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXWCGAME →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →