SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets — 213 contracts, SF signal on every row.

213 live Kalshi contracts (161 audited). Median implied probability sits at 24%. 197 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXWCGAME-26JUN25JPNSWE-JPN +40c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 16.9pp · cheapest KXWCGAME-26JUN27JORARG-JOR · richest KXWCGAME-26JUN14GERCUW-GER.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXWCGAME.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXWCGAME
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXWCGAME
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXWCGAME",
    "label": "2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 213,
    "volume24hSum": 28414.67,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00741
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 28 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$28.4K+58%
min $13.2Kmax $31.1K
Breadth-2%+14.4pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 18:45 UTC
May 22past 7d · UTCMay 28 · 18:23

Live contracts

213

Median IY

24¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$28.4K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+40¢

KXWCGAME-26JUN25JPNSWE-JPN

2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 146 of 213 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 88.8 → 31129.9%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d31129.915609.388.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 213

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Brazil vs Morocco Winner?: Morocco16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 360%Resid —$2.4K
Mexico vs South Africa Winner?: Mexico66¢
IY 671%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 175%Resid —$2.3K
Spain vs Saudi Arabia Winner?: Spain87¢
IY 144%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.2K
Brazil vs Morocco Winner?: Brazil61¢
IY 774%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.8K
Jordan vs Argentina Winner?: Jordan5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.7K
Mexico vs South Africa Winner?: South Africa11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.6K
USA vs Paraguay Winner?: USA48¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 108%Resid —$1.5K
Korea Republic vs Czechia Winner?: Korea Republic35¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
Uzbekistan vs Colombia Winner?: Uzbekistan10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$862
USA vs Paraguay Winner?: Paraguay24¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 555%Resid —$760
Haiti vs Scotland Winner?: Haiti12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$653
Ghana vs Panama Winner?: Panama25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 464%Resid —$641
Tunisia vs Netherlands Winner?: Netherlands61¢
IY 553%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 170%Resid —$595
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Winner?: Uruguay63¢
IY 667%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$586
Canada vs Qatar Winner?: Canada68¢
IY 489%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$572
Australia vs Turkiye Winner?: Turkiye53¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 354%Resid —$390
Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Winner?: Canada52¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$358
France vs Senegal Winner?: France67¢
IY 544%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$343
England vs Croatia Winner?: Croatia19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$338
Canada vs Qatar Winner?: Qatar9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$335
213 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 FIFA World Cup Match Winner Markets

From market_changes
9h agoKalshi
Japan vs Sweden Winner?: Japan
43¢3→43 (+40)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar Winner?: Bosnia and Herzegovina
49¢11→49 (+38)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Portugal vs Congo DR Winner?: Portugal
76¢41→76 (+35)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar Winner?: Bosnia and Herzegovina
11¢41→11 (-30)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Japan vs Sweden Winner?: Japan
3¢31→3 (-28)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Portugal vs Congo DR Winner?: Portugal
41¢68→41 (-27)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Colombia vs Congo DR Winner?: Colombia
58¢33→58 (+25)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia Winner?: Saudi Arabia
11¢34→11 (-23)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 28 May 2026 18:08:34 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXWCGAME →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →