Will Igor Jesus record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will Igor Jesus record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Polymarket, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $7.373, with an 88¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicating virtually no trading activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $7.373, with an 88¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicating virtually no trading activity. The 1235% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated by the wide bid-ask gap rather than reflecting genuine edge, and the 1001% realized volatility suggests this is a highly speculative position with minimal price discovery. With 35 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, the market faces imminent resolution risk, making it unsuitable for most traders given the combination of illiquidity, extreme spreads, and the inherent difficulty of predicting individual player performance in a tournament that hasn't yet concluded.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who records the most assists through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x488d555774a232d4a85eecc33c86068e6fc364400cf1fdcdb785e1a90d5c83d9 yes 100