Will Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos record the most cards in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $245k open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and the 4¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 8¢ spread and astronomical 25,235% implied yield on the Yes side indicate severe mispricing or a trapped position, though the 35-day expiry and neutral regime score suggest the market hasn't yet converged to fair value. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ combined with high cliff risk (24) warrants caution, as resolution depends on a single player's card accumulation across an entire tournament—a highly uncertain outcome with limited trading depth to validate the current pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who records the most disciplinary cards through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. For the purpose of this market, a disciplinary card will count as a yellow card, a direct red card, or a red card resulting from the accumulation of two yellow cards in the same match. A 2nd yellow card accumulated in a match which results in a red card will count as one card in the final count, not a separate yellow and red card. The tally of these cards will be counted as reflected on the official UEFA Europa League website (https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/statistics/players/disciplinary/?sortBy=red_cards&order=desc). In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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