Will Igor Jesus record the most cards in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14.05 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 41¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 41% implied probability for Igor Jesus. The massive 78¢ spread and astronomical 1513% implied yield on the yes side signal severe mispricing risk, likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus. With 35 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this micro-liquidity market is vulnerable to sharp repricing on any significant news about Jesus's disciplinary record or competing players' card accumulation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who records the most disciplinary cards through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. For the purpose of this market, a disciplinary card will count as a yellow card, a direct red card, or a red card resulting from the accumulation of two yellow cards in the same match. A 2nd yellow card accumulated in a match which results in a red card will count as one card in the final count, not a separate yellow and red card. The tally of these cards will be counted as reflected on the official UEFA Europa League website (https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/statistics/players/disciplinary/?sortBy=red_cards&order=desc). In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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