Will Deniz Undav record the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Deniz Undav record the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing May 21, 2026. This market displays severe illiquidity concerns with zero 24-hour volume and only $16,105 open interest, paired with an extreme 87¢ spread that inflates the implied yield to an unrealistic 1,139% on the Yes side.

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20¢
Bid/Ask 4/35¢·Spread 31¢·Vol $0·OI $405.33·Closes May 21, 2026·26d remaining
0x9b9f5b037e7db195d3fe7637491a55554e5e05b30d6e27a56077a9a146c0b121
7-day price879 snapshots · 2 regime
52¢20¢ current
Apr 818¢Apr 22

Analysis

9d ago

This market displays severe illiquidity concerns with zero 24-hour volume and only $16,105 open interest, paired with an extreme 87¢ spread that inflates the implied yield to an unrealistic 1,139% on the Yes side. The 645% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 1 suggest the market is highly unstable and prone to sharp repricing, particularly given the 35-day timeframe remaining until resolution on 5/21/2026. Notably, there's a discrepancy in the resolution criteria—the market title references the Europa League while the resolution text specifies the Europa Conference League, which could create ambiguity and trading friction if not clarified before expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5705.8%
IY (No) 356.6%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 4
Overround 0.6%
LAS 1.55
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)5705.8%
IY (No)356.6%
Adj IY0%
CRI4
Overround0.6%
LAS1.55

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
31¢
Computed
4/25/2026, 10:03:12 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 9:53:44 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x9b9f5b037e7db195d3fe7637491a55554e5e05b30d6e27a56077a9a146c0b121 yes 100

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