Will Ricardo Horta record the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Ricardo Horta record the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 75¢ spread despite only 35 days to expiry, suggesting minimal trader interest in a niche player prop.

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43¢
Bid/Ask 3/83¢·Spread 80¢·Vol $0·OI $13.98·Closes May 21, 2026·26d remaining
0xd7907bc8733238f5d943e9eaa89e32c3932b9533c37cf7a7d7652f79f155da44
7-day price2000 snapshots · 3 regime
52¢43¢ current
Apr 1413¢Apr 25

Analysis

9d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 75¢ spread despite only 35 days to expiry, suggesting minimal trader interest in a niche player prop. The 42¢ price has nearly doubled from 22¢ over seven days amid realized volatility exceeding 3,100%, indicating the market is highly unstable and potentially mispriced given the thin order book ($14.6k open interest). Notably, there's a resolution discrepancy—the title references the 2025-26 Europa League but the resolution criteria specify the Europa Conference League, creating ambiguity that could affect final settlement and explaining the elevated cliff risk index of 1.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2327.4%
IY (No) 874.3%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 2
RV 2634%
VR 6.08
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2327.4%
IY (No)874.3%
Adj IY0%
CRI2
RV2634%
VR6.08
IAR8.3/h
Overround0.6%
LAS2.32

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
80¢
Computed
4/25/2026, 10:00:11 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 9:53:44 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xd7907bc8733238f5d943e9eaa89e32c3932b9533c37cf7a7d7652f79f155da44 yes 100

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