Will Elliot Anderson record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Elliot Anderson record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $26.51 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 47¢ spread.

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25¢
Bid/Ask 1/49¢·Spread 48¢·Vol $0·OI $31.691·Closes May 21, 2026·26d remaining
0x324c95bb3c8698215dfed32f7c242492fcbfcf273fc9395c12df1ec5d6ec1975
7-day price91 snapshots · 2 regime
48¢25¢ current
Apr 1023¢Apr 24

Analysis

9d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $26.51 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 47¢ spread. The astronomical 3154% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient capital to reflect true probabilities for such a niche outcome. With 35 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, the market faces significant execution risk, particularly given the low trading activity and the speculative nature of predicting individual player red card records across an entire tournament season.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who records the most red cards through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. For the purpose of this market, both direct red cards, or red cards that result from the accumulation of two yellow cards in the same match will be considered in the final count. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4279.3%
IY (No) 475.5%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 3
RV 3388%
VR 6.61
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)4279.3%
IY (No)475.5%
Adj IY0%
CRI3
RV3388%
VR6.61
IAR0.5/h
Overround0.1%
LAS1.96

Regime

Label
taker
Score
0.636
Spread
48¢
Computed
4/25/2026, 10:02:46 AM
Observability directEvent type sports
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 9:53:44 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x324c95bb3c8698215dfed32f7c242492fcbfcf273fc9395c12df1ec5d6ec1975 yes 100

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