Will Jayden Oosterwolde record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Jayden Oosterwolde record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing May 21, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity and structural distress with zero 24-hour volume despite an extreme 88¢ spread and $10.866 open interest, suggesting the 47¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.

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48¢
Bid/Ask 1/95¢·Spread 94¢·Vol $0·OI $6.193·Closes May 21, 2026·26d remaining
0x3b7ccd9fd1f26316a36d467557e86e3de7739b9f4faa87cbb4a5791fca86fec9
7-day price736 snapshots · 2 regime
51¢48¢ current
Apr 846¢Apr 25

Analysis

9d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity and structural distress with zero 24-hour volume despite an extreme 88¢ spread and $10.866 open interest, suggesting the 47¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The astronomical implied yields (1186% for Yes, 932% for No) and cliff risk index of 1 indicate this is likely a dead or mispriced market where the resolution criteria itself appears incomplete ("If multiple winners" text cuts off), creating additional uncertainty about how ties would actually be adjudicated. With 35 days to expiry and realized volatility at 197%, traders should be cautious—the minimal price movement from 50¢ to 47¢ over seven days combined with zero liquidity suggests this market may struggle to resolve cleanly or could face disputes over UEFA's official determination.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who records the most yellow cards through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1545.3%
IY (No) 1316.7%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 1
RV 189%
VR 0.48
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1545.3%
IY (No)1316.7%
Adj IY0%
CRI1
RV189%
VR0.48
IAR0.9/h
LAS1.96

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
94¢
Computed
4/25/2026, 10:04:03 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 9:53:44 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x3b7ccd9fd1f26316a36d467557e86e3de7739b9f4faa87cbb4a5791fca86fec9 yes 100

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