Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League final?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League final?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Polymarket, closing May 7, 2026. Aston Villa's Europa League final odds have surged 30% over the past week to 66¢, reflecting their competitive position in the tournament with just 20 days until market close.
Analysis
Aston Villa's Europa League final odds have surged 30% over the past week to 66¢, reflecting their competitive position in the tournament with just 20 days until market close. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 943.9% on the Yes side signals extreme mispricing or suggests the market is pricing in substantial late-stage uncertainty, though the modest $7.2k daily volume and 6¢ spread indicate thin liquidity that may be exaggerating these yield figures. With a Cliff Risk Index of 2 and neutral regime, the market appears vulnerable to sharp repricing once Villa's knockout stage fate becomes clearer.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Europa League final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Europa League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 UEFA Europa League is cancelled, postponed after June 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Europa League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x2b3c1d31b69d46232dab7d5c68e10d7f0064160eb57f1fea3fe2191f69f85a95 yes 100