UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?

The 56¢ price reflects a moderately elevated resignation probability over the next 72 days, though the extreme realized volatility of 906% and high info arrival rate of 4.6 events per hour suggest significant uncertainty around specific ministerial departures. The 12¢ spread and modest $22.5k daily volume indicate relatively thin liquidity for a binary outcome this close to expiration, creating potential slippage on larger positions. The asymmetric implied yields (399% for Yes vs. 647% for No) and cliff risk index of 1 suggest traders are pricing in discrete event risk rather than gradual probability drift, likely tied to ongoing UK political developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sitting Cabinet Minister of the United Kingdom as of February 4, 2026 ET, resigns from their position in the cabinet by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Only an actual resignation will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. If the Prime Minister accepts a letter of resignation from a cabinet minister, or a cabinet minister otherwise formally resigns, this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately, even if the cabinet minister in question agrees to stay for a period of time for any reason (e.g., until a replacement is ready, etc.). If a minister submits a letter of resignation and it is refused, or they otherwise withdraw that letter, it will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If a minister submits a letter of resignation and is subsequently fired from their position, it will still qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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