US fertility rate up in Q1 2026
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026 is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
8¢ current
−9¢Contract brief
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Outcome
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$252
Identifier
0x9903e1a6...6dd6
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$84
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$252
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x9903e1a6…6dd6
Event family
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$252
Outcomes
1
Highest price
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026 8¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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