Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$46K
Best sibling
December 31, 2026 10¢
Ticker
0x5ac7d0d2…7932
Price history
3¢ current
−2¢Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x5ac7d0d2…7932
Event family
U.S. nuclear test by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$46K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
December 31, 2026 10¢
Current share
71%
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x5ac7d0d23ee64e4f0b9c2b58155773fe7080dbb4a4f07aa5a39aac79038c7932
December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x1b9937cd28466c68641596dacdf5c380b27041ae36a082e1b062fbc74590086b
September 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x6be3d6364e9a88a17f1fd993629de7a1a7f37ee23a9b15bf9af66834497bec0e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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