U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 15% — a 22pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
9 contracts
Polymarket
15%
11 contracts
Cross-venue gap
22pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
20 contracts
Top contract
18¢
$6K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 15¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (15¢, 11 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least” vs “Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 21 percentage points?: Democrats, 21+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P21
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 15 percentage points?: Democrats, 15+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P15
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P9
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 27 percentage points?: Democrats, 27+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P27
Cluster 2
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.80ㅤ?: Above 6.80ㅤ
KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.80
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.66ㅤ?: Above 6.66ㅤ
KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.66
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.78ㅤ?: Above 6.78ㅤ
KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.78
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.72ㅤ?: Above 6.72ㅤ
KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.72
Cluster 3
Will the U.S
Cluster 4
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by
Cluster 5
U.S. nuclear test by
Cluster 6
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by
Cluster 7
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?: May 31
0x84dbc9…4891
Cluster 8
US strike on Mexico by
US strike on Mexico by...?: December 31
0xb23e6d…50a7
Cluster 9
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?: June 30
0x0f9e5b…20b4
Cluster 10
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?: June 30, 2026
0x33fb07…fbf9
What moved the line
- Apr 28June 30, 2026↑19pp2→21¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30June 30, 2026↓18pp21→3¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30↑18pp8→26¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↓18pp26→8¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Democrats, 21+ pts↑18pp14→32¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.