U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 12% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least” vs “Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 21 percentage points?: Democrats, 21+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P21
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 15 percentage points?: Democrats, 15+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P15
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P9
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 27 percentage points?: Democrats, 27+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NMSEND-P27
Cluster 2
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?: Before 2027
KXUSFUND-27
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that the U.S. conducts a ground military operation targeting drug cartels or criminal organizations in Mexico before a specific deadline. The 29% aggregate probability sits between two distinct market views: Kalshi traders (averaging 41%) assess higher risk, while Polymarket traders (averaging 20%) see it as less likely. The gap suggests disagreement about whether escalating border security tensions, cartel violence, or political pressure would trigger direct military action. Key drivers include the Trump administration's stance on border security and Mexico, current cartel activity levels, and Mexico's willingness to permit or resist such operations. Related markets show traders view entry restrictions as more probable than military intervention, and assign low odds to regime change in Mexico, suggesting uncertainty about the political stability needed for such an operation to proceed.
- ›Trump administration rhetoric and policy on border security versus actual military readiness—stated intent differs materially from operational authorization
- ›Mexico's diplomatic and military capacity to resist or cooperate with U.S. ground operations—Sheinbaum administration's position remains unclarified in markets
- ›Cartel violence escalation or border-related incidents that could trigger domestic U.S. political pressure for military action before the deadline
- ›Historical precedent and legal/diplomatic barriers—no recent U.S. ground operation in Mexico exists, creating uncertainty about threshold for action
- ›Timing concentration—if the deadline is 2026 year-end or sooner, the window for operational planning and execution narrows significantly
What moved the line
- Jun 20Before 2027↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before 2027↑4pp16→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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