June 15 · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by
June 15 is priced at 49¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 48¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?.
Price history
49¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
June 15
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
July 31 85¢
Range
0¢-85¢
Family volume
$7.8M
Identifier
0x35c73eb4...70b6
May 28, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
48¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$56K
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
Closes
May 15, 2026
Family volume
$7.8M
Orderbook snapshot
48 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 15, 2026
Identifier
0x35c73eb4…70b6
Event family
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7.8M
Outcomes
7
Highest price
July 31 85¢
Current share
9%
July 31
polymarket · 0x258031a51215d328eac2db15bdf45abdee1a23d38d66e12462a83c34cf31b5c8
June 30
polymarket · 0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3190df6e2aca0a93ab0d6fb46fd279003f17d4cdccee164
June 15
polymarket · 0x35c73eb41a0ee54b49358c523a2d3335e9df5ee21bba9e526813a6fbaa0f70b6
June 7
polymarket · 0x7f7546918378d63097393ed497ab60d8f911b742abc42b8263bb2504816b4741
June 3
polymarket · 0x553c1115fe928f9800e52ea5adabf894d6885b328be0a53927fe897c2eb8623d
May 31
polymarket · 0x2bef40a1f62d045527228e699990d1bd1f97906b2458a6f3e4a0daf11124060c
May 28
polymarket · 0xa1dc76d34934f2abb0fa402776816d51ee0b6e5591a1a95e1dd77d119fd65fb9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.