June 7 · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by
June 7 is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 35¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?.
Price history
36¢ current
−15¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
June 7
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
July 31 81¢
Range
0¢-81¢
Family volume
$7.5M
Identifier
0x7f754691...4741
May 27, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
37¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$13K
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
Family volume
$7.5M
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 37¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
Identifier
0x7f754691…4741
Event family
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7.5M
Outcomes
7
Highest price
July 31 81¢
Current share
0%
July 31
polymarket · 0x258031a51215d328eac2db15bdf45abdee1a23d38d66e12462a83c34cf31b5c8
June 30
polymarket · 0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3190df6e2aca0a93ab0d6fb46fd279003f17d4cdccee164
June 15
polymarket · 0x35c73eb41a0ee54b49358c523a2d3335e9df5ee21bba9e526813a6fbaa0f70b6
June 7
polymarket · 0x7f7546918378d63097393ed497ab60d8f911b742abc42b8263bb2504816b4741
June 3
polymarket · 0x553c1115fe928f9800e52ea5adabf894d6885b328be0a53927fe897c2eb8623d
May 31
polymarket · 0x2bef40a1f62d045527228e699990d1bd1f97906b2458a6f3e4a0daf11124060c
May 28
polymarket · 0xa1dc76d34934f2abb0fa402776816d51ee0b6e5591a1a95e1dd77d119fd65fb9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.