Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch
$5B is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 10 inside Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?.
Price history
3¢ current
−47¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Outcome
$5B
Rank
#9 of 10
Leader
$100M 95¢
Range
3¢-95¢
Family volume
$1.4M
Identifier
0xf5082588...bbd0
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$71
Family rank
#9 of 10
10 outcomes · Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$1.4M
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
0xf5082588…bbd0
Event family
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.4M
Outcomes
10
Highest price
$100M 95¢
Current share
4%
$100M
polymarket · 0xcb0435359047119a7c21536b540a98362a079cabb684746939faf9df9ab4774f
$200M
polymarket · 0x195b7365dc4011dc6f7e1acb52cb42c6a54ebea9b8ef00b84a0cadb985412ca6
$300M
polymarket · 0x1aabd7e8fe19085c7ba902d5002d1fbb9116473fb89bdfcd3be5478017916013
$500M
polymarket · 0x76e7f72aef4e8533e5f3e6672f223899682d52849e022cac8592a7a4f56cb1a7
$800M
polymarket · 0xbd549c211a4b156b03a37401348ffaf6b8fcce0182e3bb48f58179ccd1fc4094
$1B
polymarket · 0x88b2827dd9bb9b3ebd4f229561a7606bd2bbdedbf3dfbb9c563e1e7dd2673747
$2B
polymarket · 0x90452ee2a372f901764dabc1812cd0d450c1239e10a44722627647ec060f32a1
$3B
polymarket · 0x99bee2c9dd32672867497f42c3193360bf625e43842e83827c747070b65f364d
$4B
polymarket · 0x81f132356dec87d798a84d37bacad685cb5c0dd4cf2e19b9159131a4a1474987
$5B
polymarket · 0xf5082588e782e5437ac1bcfe4bd6d8fe7ced8c2519118f3ad25c2956da63bbd0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.