No Head of State · Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026
No Head of State is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Outcome
No Head of State
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Delcy Rodríguez 91¢
Range
0¢-91¢
Family volume
$32K
Identifier
0x2122019d...9d60
Jun 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$9K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$32K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x2122019d…9d60
Event family
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$32K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Delcy Rodríguez 91¢
Current share
28%
Delcy Rodríguez
polymarket · 0x354c604439d7aa5d000d17a7afe94c3bc0bc1840b2ba92068b6978ee1f782478
No Head of State
polymarket · 0x2122019d3d96845349e08dda193aae2ff0d4ebac8b7a527d6cbc0ed2114f9d60
María Corina Machado
polymarket · 0xe4044a81d532d3994fe8fd1d0ea0534843b2d0cc721565d5b35cb87c0c9f5fd1
Dinorah Figuera
polymarket · 0x78e40a3183e91eb0f65755a484d381b3b2a842bdbe5a157ec10b456430c881d5
Evan Pettus
polymarket · 0x17b66274e57a38acd15e628503ee6e83d3f261e906e8b8c99e5f79328f453294
Pete Hegseth
polymarket · 0x23bd5a13912c5c5c9fd6051d5b2da91515d031e9bc26dabfb8fe3c5c198ebcb7
Dan Caine
polymarket · 0xe8edb84bc1fb776b38ec9055336213a0d28bf45619876a711d38e8d2428fef7e
Edmundo González
polymarket · 0xd23288d839be9f81a5b897a99e99061ce892c62fd1b48b814793fa63c07967e1
Donald Trump
polymarket · 0x4715da54dd9aaafbdbcdacf9fbb515961b9fdee4561d5b647fac4c69d87eba96
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
polymarket · 0x3c1312e1589df1405a01bc9b481f89f012a5c263dae8712e1e5af70ab5240480
Richard Grenell
polymarket · 0x540eadc79f1b702ec85a5ee943798f85a085d379755193cf27a8c90235729f9c
Frank Donovan
polymarket · 0xf728480baae359984899b976625a624530650107c5ce6dad184760200e969d58
Marco Rubio
polymarket · 0x937dc6ba220f74e165d9b9df3b98699e53e7d50cc0ccba046e0e77c3ba287921
Vladimir Padrino López
polymarket · 0x9826355ea18ae77199fbf64bb121fdce76e8490d94391e6ee41b98d53c1f294d
Jorge Rodríguez
polymarket · 0xf5758394b00b704a9487b0e8ef1a2f75e8b958fa46cb70b0ec6f6becb1983e40
Nicolás Maduro
polymarket · 0x7590cbc21f9c580c11c83294b29070e4ce8629ef869058d84128407ae7ec36dd
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.