Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Delcy Rodríguez
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
No Head of State
Spread
87pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026
Analysis
This probability represents market participants' assessment that Delcy Rodríguez will remain Venezuela's de facto leader through the end of 2026. The 90% level reflects relatively high confidence in continuity of the current political arrangement, though the near-zero trading volume on the leading contract suggests thin liquidity and limited recent repricing. The main factors supporting this level are the apparent consolidation of state control and absence of near-term institutional challenges, while scenarios involving leadership change—either through political succession, international intervention, or internal power shifts—remain priced at roughly 10% combined. Key catalysts that would shift this probability include major changes in military loyalty, international sanctions escalation, or documented health crises affecting the current power structure. The low trading activity indicates markets may be underpricing tail risks or reflecting genuine consensus about short-term stability.
- ›Delcy Rodríguez currently holds the role of vice president and de facto co-administrator; any formal resignation, succession, or incapacity would directly trigger contract resolution before year-end
- ›Military and security force loyalty remains the institutional foundation of current control; a demonstrable defection or public split would significantly lower this probability
- ›International diplomatic recognition and sanctions policy could shift the definition or practical reality of de facto leadership by December 2026
- ›The contract shows near-zero volume on the leading outcome since inception, suggesting either strong consensus pricing or illiquidity masking market uncertainty
- ›No scheduled elections, referenda, or formal power-transition dates appear anchored in Venezuelan governance before December 31, 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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