Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet before Jan 1, 2027?

The market is pricing a 24% probability of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting by year-end 2026, but the extreme 476% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and only $20.4k open interest suggests this is a highly illiquid, speculative position rather than a liquid consensus forecast. The 536% realized volatility and recent 5-cent price jump (18¢ to 23¢ over seven days) indicate sharp sentiment swings driven by geopolitical headlines rather than fundamental reassessment, with the 2.4x vol ratio suggesting the market may be overestimating tail risks given the ongoing conflict context.

Resolution rules

If Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet (including phone calls) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade