Will Pump.fun reach $0.0054 by December 31, 2026?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 642% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 30.9% on "No," suggesting the 18¢ price may undervalue the probability given Pump.fun's current volatility (443% realized). The zero 24-hour volume combined with a wide 16¢ spread and modest $1.1M open interest indicates thin liquidity, making the price potentially unreliable; notably, the position has declined from 22¢ to 18¢ over seven days despite the massive yield differential, which could signal either genuine bearish conviction or a liquidity-driven mispricing. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, the market faces meaningful tail risk, particularly given the binary Binance candle resolution mechanism that could trigger on a single spike rather than sustained price movement.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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