↓ $1.80 · What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026
↓ $1.80 is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month prior to the contract month, consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Outcome
↓ $1.80
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
↓ $2.90 62¢
Range
0¢-62¢
Family volume
$358K
Identifier
0xfa3531e7...5d70
May 27, 2026, 3:04 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$77
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$358K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month prior to the contract month, consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
0xfa3531e7…5d70
Event family
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$358K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
↓ $2.90 62¢
Current share
1%
↓ $2.90
polymarket · 0xd20e6e6a67bf20edd1b9d2aaf990e5532afe977c32db1b500b2b183506d210db
↑ $3.20
polymarket · 0xc571f73e2935ae4f6468c7b86989dce5114c7da821b597651278d81814961040
↓ $2.80
polymarket · 0x34c7a1e2412ee74e984505b8e21379cfa112b9eec0a9108d0cf1f1a4c4ed4a8f
↓ $2.70
polymarket · 0x92709fe4e3a16c856263fcafc7abea64c3102258de5387b8f807d05b582c5369
↓ $2.60
polymarket · 0x23003281a6d2ddbc4d1c28f3fe6aec701f3e0d1328de7cc323b839be489632f0
↓ $2.50
polymarket · 0xe36b1d5940b81354c6911ba8d5ba06f9652a862dc585d1a3300c742d293085a8
↑ $3.40
polymarket · 0x44ef43c4a2239e78b9893852cdcb9e18a4f9c966d026da72b3ccfa1f6647b235
↑ $4.00
polymarket · 0xcb0845c2cab884f7a3bf94e6c9b1dc666c31b8c02aec8559ef5e225e18911a54
↓ $2.40
polymarket · 0x4b1096447b0e7fc0bb71f2797be2c20d481d3b51d4c80552f969e66805eea9fa
↑ $3.60
polymarket · 0x84088f419b8e99803f21da8c185dc806795457dcfa3f20823bced66599aa566d
↑ $3.80
polymarket · 0x8baf89e4b852c0512a04d0977fb9150592ce4a64eba98a19090c39e4050514b2
↓ $2.20
polymarket · 0x7010d321dc0949cc035600b0acd6acd2c6e39db6a745c29a43344fa5b9fef831
↓ $1.80
polymarket · 0xfa3531e7cf8a3cb10a1668ce6be37e34be10ed7e3b792202fe1c15555ff65d70
↓ $2.00
polymarket · 0xb72c4c2e13f3956b0010d58386f722858f31b750f634073976658048f985ef84
↑ $4.20
polymarket · 0xec594b84a715a38dbb022321db6eeb83da9e931ff8f820c02f733f8e54606a1c
↓ $1.60
polymarket · 0x4696f9a0c596b593172bad82efaded794cda93b83bd8b8e301016aba7edd4edd
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract
When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
The Settlement Halo: Microstructure Changes in the Final 24 Hours
How spreads, volume, and maker behavior change in the 24 hours before a prediction market resolves, why it happens, and three trading implications.
Petrodollar System in 2026: BRICS Oil Trading, Yuan, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Deep dive on the petrodollar system in 2026, BRICS oil trading and yuan contracts, and what prediction markets are pricing for dollar dominance by 2030.
How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle
Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.