SimpleFunctions

↓ $2.90 · What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026

↓ $2.90 is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 34¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?.

Price history

36¢ current

+11¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 19, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the close of the last trading day in May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month prior to the contract month, consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Outcome

↓ $2.90

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

↓ $2.90 36¢

Range

0¢-36¢

Family volume

$345K

Identifier

0xd20e6e6a...10db

May 26, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

36¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

Ask

37¢

Spread

34¢

24h volume

$3K

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Family volume

$345K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 37¢

Polymarket
34¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.3K
3¢8
2¢100
AskSize
37¢569
38¢761
46¢500
57¢10
58¢166
59¢84
66¢311
68¢150

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the close of the last trading day in May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month prior to the contract month, consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

0xd20e6e6a…10db

SF Signal
SF Index
11143.79
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 96¢, -60¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$345K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $2.90 36¢

Current share

16%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $2.90

polymarket · 0xd20e6e6a67bf20edd1b9d2aaf990e5532afe977c32db1b500b2b183506d210db

36¢
$55K$3K0.0

↑ $3.20

polymarket · 0xc571f73e2935ae4f6468c7b86989dce5114c7da821b597651278d81814961040

35¢
$88K$6K0.1

↓ $2.80

polymarket · 0x34c7a1e2412ee74e984505b8e21379cfa112b9eec0a9108d0cf1f1a4c4ed4a8f

14¢
$7K$1K

↓ $2.70

polymarket · 0x92709fe4e3a16c856263fcafc7abea64c3102258de5387b8f807d05b582c5369

4¢
$8K$1751.5

↓ $2.60

polymarket · 0x23003281a6d2ddbc4d1c28f3fe6aec701f3e0d1328de7cc323b839be489632f0

2¢
$75K$235

↓ $2.40

polymarket · 0x4b1096447b0e7fc0bb71f2797be2c20d481d3b51d4c80552f969e66805eea9fa

2¢
$8K$200

↓ $2.50

polymarket · 0xe36b1d5940b81354c6911ba8d5ba06f9652a862dc585d1a3300c742d293085a8

2¢
$7K$0

↑ $3.40

polymarket · 0x44ef43c4a2239e78b9893852cdcb9e18a4f9c966d026da72b3ccfa1f6647b235

1¢
$60K$731

↑ $4.00

polymarket · 0xcb0845c2cab884f7a3bf94e6c9b1dc666c31b8c02aec8559ef5e225e18911a54

1¢
$14K$250

↑ $3.60

polymarket · 0x84088f419b8e99803f21da8c185dc806795457dcfa3f20823bced66599aa566d

1¢
$6K$0

↑ $3.80

polymarket · 0x8baf89e4b852c0512a04d0977fb9150592ce4a64eba98a19090c39e4050514b2

1¢
$4K$10

↓ $2.20

polymarket · 0x7010d321dc0949cc035600b0acd6acd2c6e39db6a745c29a43344fa5b9fef831

1¢
$3K$160

↓ $1.80

polymarket · 0xfa3531e7cf8a3cb10a1668ce6be37e34be10ed7e3b792202fe1c15555ff65d70

1¢
$3K$0

↓ $2.00

polymarket · 0xb72c4c2e13f3956b0010d58386f722858f31b750f634073976658048f985ef84

1¢
$2K$0

↑ $4.20

polymarket · 0xec594b84a715a38dbb022321db6eeb83da9e931ff8f820c02f733f8e54606a1c

0¢
$3K$210

↓ $1.60

polymarket · 0x4696f9a0c596b593172bad82efaded794cda93b83bd8b8e301016aba7edd4edd

0¢
$3K$122

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

2

VR

1.83

IAR

1.2/h

Overround

-0.1%

LAS

0.03

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2
VR
1.83
IAR
1.2/h
Overround
-0.1%
LAS
0.03

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.