↓ 30 · What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026
↓ 30 is priced at 40¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 13¢ bid, 68¢ ask, 55¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
40¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Outcome
↓ 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$191
Identifier
0x335ae64f...b691
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
55¢
Reported volume
$191
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$191
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 68¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0x335ae64f…b691
Event family
What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$191
Outcomes
1
Highest price
↓ 30 40¢
Current share
100%
↓ 30
polymarket · 0x335ae64f54e14b6aab5b2964fdeb78718ac0b5f030ff3e8b87d30daf9b2ab691
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 40% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.