What will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 11 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
11 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$172K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
Cluster 2
What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026
What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 30
0x335ae6…b691
What moved the line
- Jun 5↓ 1,500↑11pp74→85¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2↓ 55,000↑9pp54→63¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3↓ 1,500↑6pp62→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↓ 1,500↑6pp68→74¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ 1,500↑6pp85→91¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 1, 2026 be above 1065last 4% · 0d
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 45% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 71% · 1d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 4% · 1d
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___last 55% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens: Markets Price Sub-$50k Probability Above 50%
Bitcoin tumbled over 5%, dragging down IBIT and ETHE. Prediction markets now assign a 53% probability of BTC hitting $50k and a 39% chance of $45k by year-end. Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders flee crypto.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.