Before Jul 1, 2028 · When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before J
Before Jul 1, 2028 is priced at 86¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 87¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before J.
Price history
86¢ current
+84¢Contract brief
If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jul 1, 2028
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2029 92¢
Range
32¢-92¢
Family volume
$94
Identifier
KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-28JUL01
May 25, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
87¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$12
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before J
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
Family volume
$94
Orderbook snapshot
87 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
Identifier
KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-28JUL01
Event family
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before J.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$94
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2029 92¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 1, 2029
kalshi · KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-29JAN01
Before Jul 1, 2028
kalshi · KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-28JUL01
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-28JAN01
Before Jul 1, 2027
kalshi · KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-27JUL01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-27JAN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 86% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.