When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets currently assign a 92% probability that the FDA will approve retatrutide (Eli Lilly's obesity and diabetes drug) by January 1, 2029. This reflects confidence in eventual approval, though the contract chain shows material uncertainty about timing—traders see only a 16% chance of approval before January 2027, suggesting the review process extends beyond near-term. The probability is elevated by retatrutide's clinical trial data and Lilly's development track record with similar GLP-1 compounds, but remains below certainty because regulatory outcomes are never guaranteed. FDA action timelines depend on submission completeness, any safety signals during review, and the agency's current workload. The most immediate resolution point would be a formal FDA decision or any major clinical or manufacturing disclosure that affects approval likelihood.

• ›Retatrutide has shown clinical efficacy in Phase 3 trials, but approval hinges on FDA's safety and manufacturing review standards, which can extend timelines unpredictably
• ›The 65-cent contract for approval by July 2027 suggests a base-case timeline of 12–18 months from now, implying submission may already be in progress or imminent
• ›No scheduled FDA decision date is publicly confirmed; a breakthrough designation or priority review status would accelerate approval odds materially
• ›Manufacturing scale-up or supply-chain constraints could delay launch even after regulatory clearance
• ›Competitive GLP-1 drug approvals and label expansions may influence FDA prioritization but do not directly determine retatrutide's path

What moved the line

• Aug 19Before Jul 1, 2028↓23pp87→64¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Before Jan 1, 2029↓23pp91→68¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Before Jul 1, 2028↑16pp64→80¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Before Jan 1, 2029↑15pp68→83¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 14Before Jul 1, 2028↓10pp88→78¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 1d
• Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 1d
• Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 1d
• Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 3, 2026 be above 314Mlast 95% · 2d
• Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026last 49% · 3d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds