When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)
Leader sits at 92% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2029
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Before Jul 1, 2028
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$809
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
952 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-27JAN01
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-27JUL01
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-29JAN01
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jul 1, 2028
KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-28JUL01
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXFDARETATRUTIDE-RET-28JAN01
What moved the line
- May 19Before Jul 1, 2028↓41pp87→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Before Jul 1, 2028↑40pp47→87¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Before Jan 1, 2029↑40pp52→92¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Before Jul 1, 2028↑39pp46→85¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Before Jul 1, 2027↑38pp34→72¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Shenzhen Peng City vs Beijing Guoan WinnerQingdao Hainiulast 31% · 0d
- Brentford at Manchester Unitedlast 64% · 0d
- Brentford wins by over 2.5 goalslast 19% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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