SimpleFunctions

Iran · Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen

Iran is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?.

Price history

0¢ current

1¢
0¢5¢
May 15, 2026May 23, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome

Iran

Rank

#11 of 16

Leader

Pakistan 65¢

Range

0¢-65¢

Family volume

$6.9M

Identifier

0x30d6852a...c9c4

May 24, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

0¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 24, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$3K

Family rank

#11 of 16

16 outcomes · Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$6.9M

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 0¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
0¢9.5K
0¢2.5K
AskSize
0¢509
2¢40
100¢20
100¢156
100¢250
100¢55
100¢28
100¢520

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x30d6852a…c9c4

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$6.9M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Pakistan 65¢

Current share

12%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Pakistan

polymarket · 0x0f3062f421a43ab9af2f3dc9c3eef48e2aab38a4c9858aca7651947642c4c964

65¢
$973K$32K0.0

No Meeting by June 30

polymarket · 0x189c38e8bf3733572f401f8d578099f7233baef3d5fcb438b4eeb0b73bacc787

13¢
$988K$14K0.2

USA

polymarket · 0x991149c636b6756e36eb0af09200e7da254b07c488b708ef794f2595dc0b017b

8¢
$251K$10K0.8

Other

polymarket · 0xfec5144509bab2118c9c172a71a3705e269a61aca2ab1de20cb23f0e17200661

3¢
$296K$4K0.7

Switzerland

polymarket · 0x291ff8aa0b7439389820e49584499d6dc65cf617dde1a47c4b84d05f42c85639

2¢
$340K$6K

Qatar

polymarket · 0xc7373d242a34de5c184ffdc9707e7b179ea6aa8f8600686ca2ddecbdbec9457b

1¢
$332K$6K

Oman

polymarket · 0x026750b9545df1861e77a85eb5461e621955344738355a6c7fe69bc78510d5d6

1¢
$320K$6K

Austria

polymarket · 0x061d30d493488624cb80cce362179251bd837ea6a0664ed4d7fd6a126ab8caa7

1¢
$234K$2K

Egypt

polymarket · 0x2a903c12cade39c8cf0e348772644b657b6d6045c61295082dac8a9f717f5221

1¢
$233K$1K

Russia

polymarket · 0xfa8eeaa9872ac4fbe207d4ff0f559b3a59a3dc0a5350f03b3ccc6e9af79039c4

1¢
$222K$1K

Iran

polymarket · 0x30d6852a292eb101cc92a9eed7b2b7be612031f820c34228a2771bdc4343c9c4

0¢
$843K$3K

Iraq

polymarket · 0x6967cb835a1ee6ec2b4e3a05ea32d91a10c6e72eeb50539018d0d7ec90305ada

0¢
$792K$887

Turkey

polymarket · 0x3a77d00f9f4a9a588a79d72a27cbdd07f8de96882b3d710badecd1b26e08764b

0¢
$327K$3K

Other - Europe

polymarket · 0xd45b7c592c566c75d5ee5a225d4ed0e2c75c84f06dd28c9c458f2bbfb6dcb0d3

0¢
$295K$3K

Saudi Arabia

polymarket · 0x9e4b8175217a1423b682116f75e901ce695bdca6271bafed276879211267a098

0¢
$255K$3K

Other - Middle East/North Africa

polymarket · 0x4cb5cc8406ef25b58f86ae5157f7dd6fc9bb28171f748aa61dec606776090a45

0¢
$216K$878

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.