Where will Trump and Putin next meet?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Where will Trump and Putin next meet?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and modest $611 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction on either side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and modest $611 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction on either side. The 490% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the 7¢ price's deep discount, but the sharp 7-day rally from 1¢ to 7¢ appears driven by thin order books rather than fundamental repricing. With nearly three years until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the market faces significant geopolitical uncertainty around whether Trump and Putin will meet at all post-August 2025, let alone specifically in NYC.
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in New York City before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-NYC yes 100