Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,195 open interest position, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,195 open interest position, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 577.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than true market expectations, particularly given the 7¢ bid-ask spread representing over half the current price. With nearly 1,000 days to expiry and a modest cliff risk index of 16, this appears to be a speculative position awaiting either significant geopolitical developments or additional market participation to establish price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in Russia before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-RUS yes 100