Where will Trump and Putin next meet?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Where will Trump and Putin next meet?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market is pricing an extraordinarily unlikely scenario at just 1¢ with a massive 1,191.8% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting near-zero liquidity ($0 24h volume) and an 8¢ spread that suggests minimal market confidence in price discovery.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extraordinarily unlikely scenario at just 1¢ with a massive 1,191.8% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting near-zero liquidity ($0 24h volume) and an 8¢ spread that suggests minimal market confidence in price discovery. The 990-day timeframe and specific geopolitical conditions (a Trump-Putin meeting in Turkey after an August 2025 Alaska meeting) create substantial cliff risk, evidenced by the 32 Cliff Risk Index score, making this more of a speculative tail-bet than a liquid prediction market. The 596% risk-adjusted yield indicates the market is pricing in significant tail risk premium rather than genuine probability assessment.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in Turkey before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-TUR yes 100