Ariana Grande · Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May
Ariana Grande is priced at 93¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 89¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 12 inside Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?.
Price history
93¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Outcome
Ariana Grande
Rank
#1 of 12
Leader
Ariana Grande 90¢
Range
1¢-90¢
Family volume
$132K
Identifier
0x3822760f...c689
May 28, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$187
Family rank
#1 of 12
12 outcomes · Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$132K
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3822760f…c689
Event family
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$132K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Ariana Grande 90¢
Current share
2%
Ariana Grande
polymarket · 0x3822760f24b05033f129f9704f29038775ec49639d6a10e240138d25a824c689
Beyonce
polymarket · 0xc3bca4495d43cf3b407838563e63bf7a3ea0f57348446506f8ded4503f1dcddb
The Weeknd
polymarket · 0x3c1af9432cc40443750731cd8c5655e21e006e8b2993acc52812fd57327e6796
Olivia Dean
polymarket · 0x88b8af5f303343bf813bcf1648f16c6d848f5494a7ba4984a464393cac393210
Taylor Swift
polymarket · 0x6dc5a86af811a567c65595a3af7844cd132f647589db0d24b22f51ae1a6365d5
Bruno Mars
polymarket · 0x99478d99fdea42cf57aa9d1aeddf1bc5b49555821ea0495ee5389469abafc7c3
Kanye West
polymarket · 0x09f80ee877de4b244766a6c56b71b40e221f1cd4e88c08d405a2fec277875469
Bad Bunny
polymarket · 0x096be8f67ba6b19791a4f0eadd9e89ff18498ef5c6713b4b69101435978bbf89
Alex Warren
polymarket · 0xa552c11c989a28e6a24bc127dfd268cca0489f4c6910f71e0e9c17619b6480e6
Don Toliver
polymarket · 0xe3b7fb649abfb1775b6be5d2d6b433357048d8eb94820d87529ca7351fd24454
Noah Kahan
polymarket · 0xd9c7f1ef5456d3b1072c7c27b278af0aa0e9c31a555b29e08a068ea8a639ec1f
Gracie Abrams
polymarket · 0x273c9876718e7307cad11cfeee7ab017d5eacc0d1e041296711ed4a2fa5201fd
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 93% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.