Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May
Leader sits at 90% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ariana Grande
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Beyonce
Spread
78pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$16K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Olivia Dean
0x88b8af…3210
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Ariana Grande
0x382276…c689
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Bruno Mars
0x99478d…c7c3
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Beyonce
0xc3bca4…cddb
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Taylor Swift
0x6dc5a8…65d5
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Bad Bunny
0x096be8…bf89
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: Kanye West
0x09f80e…5469
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?: The Weeknd
0x3c1af9…6796
Analysis
This market asks whether Ariana Grande will secure a #1 hit on the US Billboard Hot 100 chart during May 2026. The 87% probability reflects traders' assessment that she is highly likely to achieve this outcome. The elevated odds reflect her consistent chart performance history and any recent releases or promotional activity scheduled for the period. Key drivers include whether she has a new single or album in active promotion during May, the competitive strength of other charting artists, and overall streaming momentum. The resolution depends entirely on Billboard's official Hot 100 rankings released each week throughout May, with the final week determining whether she achieved the threshold. Market uncertainty could shift significantly if unexpected chart competitors emerge or if her promotional timeline changes.
- ›Whether Ariana Grande has an active single release or album promotion cycle scheduled for May 2026
- ›Historical chart performance data for Ariana Grande versus competing artists with realistic May 2026 release prospects
- ›Streaming volume and radio airplay metrics during May, which directly influence Billboard Hot 100 positioning
- ›Any new releases or surprise drops from rival artists that could displace potential #1 contenders from the top position
- ›Billboard's official Hot 100 chart rankings published weekly, with verification required from the final week of May
What moved the line
- May 26The Weeknd↓9pp35→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 28The Weeknd↓8pp26→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Beyonce↑6pp4→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Ariana Grande↑4pp89→93¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Ariana Grande↑3pp86→89¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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