Bruno Mars · Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May
Bruno Mars is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 12 inside Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?.
Price history
3¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Outcome
Bruno Mars
Rank
#3 of 12
Leader
Ariana Grande 90¢
Range
1¢-90¢
Family volume
$146K
Identifier
0x99478d99...c7c3
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$355
Family rank
#3 of 12
12 outcomes · Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$146K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x99478d99…c7c3
Event family
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$146K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Ariana Grande 90¢
Current share
0%
Ariana Grande
polymarket · 0x3822760f24b05033f129f9704f29038775ec49639d6a10e240138d25a824c689
Beyonce
polymarket · 0xc3bca4495d43cf3b407838563e63bf7a3ea0f57348446506f8ded4503f1dcddb
Bruno Mars
polymarket · 0x99478d99fdea42cf57aa9d1aeddf1bc5b49555821ea0495ee5389469abafc7c3
Olivia Dean
polymarket · 0x88b8af5f303343bf813bcf1648f16c6d848f5494a7ba4984a464393cac393210
Kanye West
polymarket · 0x09f80ee877de4b244766a6c56b71b40e221f1cd4e88c08d405a2fec277875469
The Weeknd
polymarket · 0x3c1af9432cc40443750731cd8c5655e21e006e8b2993acc52812fd57327e6796
Taylor Swift
polymarket · 0x6dc5a86af811a567c65595a3af7844cd132f647589db0d24b22f51ae1a6365d5
Bad Bunny
polymarket · 0x096be8f67ba6b19791a4f0eadd9e89ff18498ef5c6713b4b69101435978bbf89
Alex Warren
polymarket · 0xa552c11c989a28e6a24bc127dfd268cca0489f4c6910f71e0e9c17619b6480e6
Don Toliver
polymarket · 0xe3b7fb649abfb1775b6be5d2d6b433357048d8eb94820d87529ca7351fd24454
Noah Kahan
polymarket · 0xd9c7f1ef5456d3b1072c7c27b278af0aa0e9c31a555b29e08a068ea8a639ec1f
Gracie Abrams
polymarket · 0x273c9876718e7307cad11cfeee7ab017d5eacc0d1e041296711ed4a2fa5201fd
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.