Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026 is priced at 17¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
17¢ current
−17¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Outcome
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
0x57678b41...f448
Jun 18, 2026, 6:47 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
15¢
Reported volume
$10K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x57678b41…f448
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026 17¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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