Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Leader sits at 75% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
None in 2026
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Anthropic
Spread
60pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$160
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?: None in 2026
0x2f2c1c…ecaf
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?: Anthropic
0x57678b…f448
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?: OpenAI
0xff51f2…c53b
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?: Google
0xc48b0f…a64c
Analysis
This market indicates a 52% probability that xAI's AI model will reach a 1550 score on Chatbot Arena before competitors in 2026. The market reflects xAI's recent momentum and technical capabilities, balanced against the substantial development efforts from established competitors like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI. Current pricing suggests xAI is viewed as the slight frontrunner, though three other competitors collectively hold 48% implied probability of achieving this milestone first. Key drivers include xAI's rate of model improvement, the release schedules and performance gains of competing models, and the specific benchmark criteria used by Chatbot Arena evaluators. Resolution will depend on which company releases a model that first accumulates sufficient community votes to reach the 1550 threshold on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Market participants are pricing in uncertainty around both technical execution speed and the timing of major model releases from multiple AI development organizations through year-end 2026.
- ›xAI's Grok model improvement trajectory and planned model releases before December 2026
- ›Anthropic's Claude model performance gains and release schedule (implied 36% probability from runner-up contract)
- ›Google and OpenAI's coding model capabilities as of Dec 31 2026 (directly related Kalshi contracts show lower individual probabilities)
- ›Chatbot Arena's evaluation methodology and whether incremental improvements will accumulate sufficient votes to cross 1550
- ›Timing and technical specifications of model releases from all four organizations throughout 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 11Anthropic↓5pp28→23¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Anthropic↓5pp23→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11None in 2026↑3pp67→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Anthropic↓3pp18→15¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15OpenAI↑3pp4→7¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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