South America · Which continent will win the World Cup
South America is priced at 23¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 22¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Which continent will win the World Cup?.
Price history
23¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026. For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent). The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
South America
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Europe 71¢
Range
0¢-71¢
Family volume
$3.0M
Identifier
0x0ed2e5e9...002f
Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Which continent will win the World Cup?
Closes
—
Family volume
$3.0M
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026. For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent). The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
—
Identifier
0x0ed2e5e9…002f
Event family
Which continent will win the World Cup.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3.0M
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Europe 71¢
Current share
10%
Europe
polymarket · 0x3561a95d16ac2edfd3831aba4612c88c6f5b84a6f0924bdb6b07dc7cfe73e121
South America
polymarket · 0x0ed2e5e985631ab71750ad21a40503508a5f7d928032b2d1f8c901013f4e002f
Africa
polymarket · 0xd71197329e1145258b960c36269870229ee816b0aa089e8f1b64ea196d7e2d08
Asia
polymarket · 0x60acf099fa9533670907f84fe43948027d33696e159c9b31e5b71e29070c00bc
North America
polymarket · 0x7eff94953c3d8aa9a36e45a545e57564100ef003a90f088b3eff4a798b35eb5e
Oceania
polymarket · 0xf212bd2891f0e33a1c16730bd8980c69ffd9d0eca10b43191b73dac023262fed
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.