Which continent will win the World Cup
Leader sits at 71% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Europe
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
South America
Spread
48pp
contested
24h volume
$92K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which continent will win the World Cup
Which continent will win the World Cup?: Africa
0xd71197…2d08
Which continent will win the World Cup?: Europe
0x3561a9…e121
Which continent will win the World Cup?: Asia
0x60acf0…00bc
Which continent will win the World Cup?: South America
0x0ed2e5…002f
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Europe has a 71% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. European teams have historically dominated the tournament—winning 12 of 21 World Cups since 1950—and currently field competitive squads from France, Germany, Spain, and other strong nations. The probability could shift based on team performance in qualifying matches, injuries to key players, and how well European teams perform in the tournament itself, scheduled for June-July 2026 in the United States. South America, at 22%, remains the secondary contender given historical strength from Argentina and Brazil, though both face competitive pressures. Africa and Asia each price at 3%, reflecting fewer historical victories and current squad depth compared to established powerhouses.
- ›Europe has won 57% of all World Cups since 1950, providing historical baseline for continental performance
- ›France won in 2018 and reached the 2022 final, while Germany, Spain, and England remain top-10 ranked nations with proven tournament experience
- ›Argentina won in 2022 and Brazil ranks top-5, representing South America's competitive depth against European challengers
- ›Tournament location in the United States may affect travel fatigue and adaptation differently across continental squads
- ›Current FIFA rankings and qualification performance through 2026 will provide concrete data to move probabilities before June tournament begins
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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