Will China make Eric Adams a citizen?
This contract is priced at 13¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 13¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
4
Family volume
$20
Best sibling
Israel 13¢
Ticker
0x36d50cef…4ad2
Market snapshot
China in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will China make Eric Adams a citizen?. The displayed quote is 13¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $20. In the Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 4 by current quote across 4 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
China
Family rank
#1 of 4
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
13¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
Reported volume
$20
Family context
4 outcomes · Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?
Quote range
8¢-13¢
Family leader
China 13¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Venue identifier: 0x36d50cef6b69ba0626ac71e3556c40967a56ac7345e9e6f1a6f53c4c9b9c4ad2. Family volume: $20.
Price history
13¢ current
+1¢Orderbook snapshot
6 / 19¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Eric Adams indicating intent to seek citizenship from the listed country will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from the listed country or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only the listed country's actually making Eric Adams a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of the listed country or Eric Adams. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x36d50cef…4ad2
Event family
Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$20
Outcomes
4
Highest price
China 13¢
Current share
100%
China
polymarket · 0x36d50cef6b69ba0626ac71e3556c40967a56ac7345e9e6f1a6f53c4c9b9c4ad2
Israel
polymarket · 0xcf6da782c7895351ac51bd74303c0e5ea7af58d331715d78e0aa4442317d49db
Russia
polymarket · 0xa7f232327cca11c61b4d8bb5194c4034f45e1301e68e2e4fb06c71e47d65876e
Sudan
polymarket · 0xb6af5851cfe8a02aeda300706f0b18ce7927fcb36d43150fcffebf3cfb5f0997
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
How to Actually Make Money on Kalshi (Not the Advice You'll Find on Reddit)
A practical, data-driven guide to making money on Kalshi prediction markets. Screening, sizing, orderbook analysis, regime detection, and the strategies that actually work.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 13% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.