Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen
Leader sits at 13% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Israel
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
China
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen
Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: Israel
0xcf6da7…49db
Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: Sudan
0xb6af58…0997
Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: China
0x36d50c…4ad2
Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?: Russia
0xa7f232…876e
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that Eric Adams, the current Mayor of New York City, will be granted citizenship by at least one country by a specified resolution date. The 12% probability reflects low but non-zero odds, split roughly equally between Israel and China as the most-favored outcomes, with Russia and Sudan at lower probabilities. Market movement would depend on concrete diplomatic developments—such as formal citizenship applications, statements from Adams or relevant governments, or significant changes in US-Israel or US-China relations that might alter incentive structures. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Adams faces circumstances that would motivate seeking foreign citizenship, such as legal jeopardy in the US or a major diplomatic opportunity. Resolution likely depends on official government announcements or public record documentation of citizenship status.
- ›Eric Adams' current legal status and any pending federal or state charges that might incentivize alternative citizenship
- ›Official statements or policy positions from Israeli, Chinese, Russian, or Sudanese governments regarding citizenship eligibility or interest in Adams
- ›Whether Adams makes or publicly discusses any citizenship applications, sponsorships, or formal inquiries with foreign governments
- ›Changes in US political relationships or Adams' diplomatic role that could create conditions for citizenship offers
- ›The resolution date of the market contract and whether Adams takes any relevant actions before that deadline
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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