Indonesia · Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30
Indonesia is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 15 inside Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?.
Price history
3¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Indonesia
Rank
#4 of 15
Leader
Lebanon 3¢
Range
0¢-3¢
Family volume
$416K
Identifier
0x7ac4ee6c...d312
Jun 7, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 43m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$17K
Family rank
#4 of 15
15 outcomes · Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
Closes
—
Family volume
$416K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
—
Identifier
0x7ac4ee6c…d312
Event family
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$416K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Lebanon 3¢
Current share
4%
Lebanon
polymarket · 0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732
Malaysia
polymarket · 0x84872ef509e8c16de463f534bbbc8233291073c9d1a6adeebf6cb34bfe83f75e
Qatar
polymarket · 0x3e4f06223a50d6e551ce3bfbb2ca5861b4b08a4db8f35b6ed03530cf427c8c09
Afghanistan
polymarket · 0x2cb2e201c613cc950599f8d440315a3125f6a3679f41f798ada974387f0a7ac5
Indonesia
polymarket · 0x7ac4ee6cc36a676667e3e1cb807b15a09fe2ef9761703cad531fa6a49359d312
Syria
polymarket · 0xdf5191450300fdcb365d50bcc82acf0e67c851d4c894b76d63fb5f8613b10f1f
Bangladesh
polymarket · 0x32711a62e5210aa2a770358c0d7762c26c7b39c1a169d10543675f26f1952435
Tunisia
polymarket · 0xfec12b13c5859c51949fefd5fc1896e3d94e808244f3d068de5350f94308ada9
Kuwait
polymarket · 0x3721f5c052eae0a8a5c98704cc30e723cbc30526e97b2e9ac9cf80440b4c5723
Cuba
polymarket · 0x5e6e46f7c9756170e4ba436c82079e0173541442943eadbc9732192fb5e7ee03
Saudi Arabia
polymarket · 0xc806bda841f56b4343b6af7b3cde2288cfd0fdd325aeaef7bedce847ea77d075
North Korea
polymarket · 0x87481d5929f101b77c7f7a0bfc899df03c9c4d3773bba061846feb68dc08e290
Iraq
polymarket · 0x344a8fae463bbcd52cba6f4f0ba388518b24115c8423f3158ae60eac98282e57
Pakistan
polymarket · 0x366e277d574453c39bdded2dc4763a388b5e3b1b9c36cb3d12ce2ccd3e5925f7
Venezuela
polymarket · 0xfd0c9092cd2b2059c1487de5fc2145f19702d314039a8d10df55d206d08058f1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.