Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027 is priced at 9¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
9¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$21K
Identifier
0x0acc45f7...a7f3
Jun 19, 2026, 7:59 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$21K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$21K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0acc45f7…a7f3
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$21K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027 9¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.