Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027
Leader sits at 23% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New Zealand
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Belgium
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Italy
0xd904f9…e2f5
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: The Netherlands
0x759cea…e4df
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: New Zealand
0x632131…7d68
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Greece
0xecf32b…4bde
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Finland
0xec0099…866b
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Germany
0xc29194…f9b3
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Japan
0x528fbd…2869
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Austria
0x21ce0a…d39c
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: United States
0x0acc45…a7f3
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Belgium
0xd95a7d…d850
Analysis
This market estimates a 25% chance that at least one country will formally recognize Palestine as a state before the end of 2026. The current probability reflects sparse recent recognition activity—Palestine gained UN observer status in 2012 but has seen limited state-level recognition in recent years, with most support concentrated among non-aligned and Arab states. The probability could rise if major Western countries shift policy positions or if coordinated diplomatic initiatives emerge, or fall if geopolitical conditions freeze. The primary catalysts include UN voting patterns on Palestinian statehood, shifts in U.S. Middle East policy, and statements from countries like Netherlands or Greece (which show higher contract prices). Key upcoming dates include any scheduled UN General Assembly votes or international peace initiatives that might prompt formal recognition decisions.
- ›Palestine currently holds UN observer state status but lacks full UN membership; formal recognition by individual countries requires independent diplomatic decisions
- ›Recent contract data shows Netherlands (9¢) and Greece (14¢) as highest-probability recognizers, suggesting Western European nations are primary contenders rather than Eastern bloc or developing nations
- ›The market assigns 25% probability despite sparse recent recognition activity, indicating traders expect either a major policy shift or concentrated diplomatic push within the next 7 months
- ›Recognition decisions typically cluster around UN votes or major peace initiatives; absence of scheduled high-profile diplomatic events before end-2026 would lower probability
- ›Current geopolitical landscape shows mixed signals: some nations support Palestinian statehood rhetorically while avoiding formal recognition due to trade or security relationships
What moved the line
- Jun 16The Netherlands↑5pp17→22¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12Belgium↓5pp25→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11Belgium↓4pp29→25¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Finland↓4pp13→9¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Greece↓4pp19→15¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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