What is the current probability for "Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 595.6% and 37.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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23¢

Bid/Ask 15/31¢·Spread 16¢·Vol $0·OI $2,444.449·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0x528fbd8194e1aa1f094589a02f18477b0edd7c4fb413140774a781d847972869

7-day price727 snapshots · 42 regime

50¢21¢ current

Apr 911¢Apr 29

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 10¢(Δ +13¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 1333.4%Close-time delta 29h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 595.6%

IY (No) 37.2%

Adj IY 119%

CRI 4

RV 3914%

VR 22.32

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	595.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	37.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	119%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3914%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	22.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.80	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

16¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 8:28:26 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:23:56 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x528fbd8194e1aa1f094589a02f18477b0edd7c4fb413140774a781d847972869 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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