Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 1,621% annualized yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiration, suggesting either severe illiquidity (just $662 open interest with a 5¢ spread) or structural underpricing of a guest appearance on an established podcast. The 7-day price decline from 10¢ to 8¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($22.79) and extraordinarily high realized volatility (1,723%) indicates this is a thin, speculative market where small trades create outsized price swings rather than reflecting genuine probability shifts. The neutral regime and modest information arrival rate (1.9/h) suggest no recent catalyst has driven the repricing, making this potentially exploitable if GCR has any meaningful connection to the UpOnly hosts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

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Regime

Trade