Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing July 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $130.8k open interest and a massive 65¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect true consensus.

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21¢
Bid/Ask 5/37¢·Spread 32¢·Vol $0·OI $123.861·Closes Jul 12, 2026·79d remaining
0xfeeebb6daa7ed4e2c87236c4fd11ea325f8419d460e9b0e65255b0ae7cd4c072
7-day price616 snapshots · 12 regime
70¢21¢ current
Apr 814¢Apr 23

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $130.8k open interest and a massive 65¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The implied yield of 528% on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the wide spread and low trading activity, while the sharp 20¢ price decline over 7 days combined with 567% realized volatility indicates either new information about Anyone's Legend's qualification prospects or thin-market volatility. With only 85 days until resolution and the tournament occurring at market close (June 26-July 12), this appears to be a low-conviction market that would benefit from significant volume to establish fair pricing.

Resolution rules

The MSI 2026 (Mid-Season Invitational) is scheduled to take place from June 26 to July 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for MSI 2026. If the listed team officially qualifies as one of the teams invited to MSI 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Ties in standings will be broken according to the official LoL Esports rules. If MSI 2026 is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or if the official list of MSI 2026 participants is not published before August 1, 2026, ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the LoL Esports website (https://lolesports.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Mid-Season_Invitational/2026) may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1735.9%
IY (No) 122.7%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 4
RV 5404%
VR 13.08
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1735.9%
IY (No)122.7%
Adj IY0%
CRI4
RV5404%
VR13.08
IAR5.3/h
Overround5.0%
LAS1.52

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
32¢
Computed
4/23/2026, 9:44:46 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 9:38:13 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xfeeebb6daa7ed4e2c87236c4fd11ea325f8419d460e9b0e65255b0ae7cd4c072 yes 100

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