Steve Hilton · Who will advance from the California Governor primary
Steve Hilton is priced at 86¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 85¢ bid, 86¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Who will advance from the California Governor primary?.
Price history
86¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Outcome
Steve Hilton
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Steve Hilton 86¢
Range
0¢-86¢
Family volume
$658K
Identifier
0x583a5056...6c50
May 28, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$658K
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 86¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0x583a5056…6c50
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 44¢, +42¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will advance from the California Governor primary.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$658K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Steve Hilton 86¢
Current share
8%
Steve Hilton
polymarket · 0x583a505658647660175c2e0aa70b4a460d8c34a6b3f46251ce5f9f46e9886c50
Xavier Becerra
polymarket · 0x50b747a9e8efa400cc053169e43347516b932aaf7b526bdcc8eca7b2b5ddb8a1
Tom Steyer
polymarket · 0x9af5f84576108c73b2f5bc58290659dc329d42bc3355ee713a41678e1a0c69f7
Chad Bianco
polymarket · 0xff7f825058ce2569c08ecf6847fca743b5e885bea614b2811f065bcab27ea6db
Katie Porter
polymarket · 0x1c4370663538d05ac11da9b5371d4951d8788d77e8447941c5141773855c8fc4
Ian Calderon
polymarket · 0x3d050cd99abdc2b68912cf4d4e881170aef24d2d9a60cb95742a788d434aab72
Brandon Jones
polymarket · 0x88d4a41111c33e2488fc49f561d67c87f838096ef22db8a897d32d1cb61d86bc
Sophia Brink
polymarket · 0xcd93c5c9d713b633cb5ce84e97b4556a07697201084ced32fec5b718ebc1dc98
Matt Mahan
polymarket · 0x332e33327686c820dbcf771657c8ffe2ab8bf947f61fd94a49d0a5a9bafbb3e7
Derek Grasty
polymarket · 0xe0ea0814959da6d2b5f473a31e6581990645c1d5dfb9894185bbc45186f2e41e
Ché Ahn
polymarket · 0x557136ba7a8fe5e76e1e68d25e72eb7a210bb113b9b07fa0da8ad6540cd4fb05
Eric Swalwell
polymarket · 0x43dcd48e7e7f231c4aea4840b866ea661f22fb9b95ced8b1875f9a0a6f1d177e
Thunder Parley
polymarket · 0x8c51f57113fa7c705af2a3b2450a42cf0d0192a49b16db4235fb7d08738a9b07
Dylan Colbert
polymarket · 0xf094d665ca7eeaeffc7a03c01588330c630a401c62c7e5a1a55637f1023728ec
Antonio Villaraigosa
polymarket · 0x7ca1634d4f979ba3b1fcb75d1e9516bcca777006019bf5f456a692f37374c3bb
Tony Thurmond
polymarket · 0x5048c95a71440cccd21edfdf748d7cf1e98693fd2f934a3246a772621333f4ef
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 86% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.