Will Steve Hilton finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will Steve Hilton finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (100% for Yes vs. 78.7% for No) suggest mispricing, though the thin order book means wide spreads (4¢) could explain some of this discrepancy. The recent 6-cent price rally from 41¢ to 47¢ over seven days is notable given the inactivity, hinting at either informed trading or minimal liquidity moves driving outsized percentage swings.
Resolution rules
If Steve Hilton finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-SHIL yes 100