SimpleFunctions

David Serpa · Who will advance from the California Governor primary

David Serpa is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Who will advance from the California Governor primary?.

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Price history

1¢ current

−49¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 28, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Outcome

David Serpa

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Steve Hilton 82¢

Range

0¢-82¢

Family volume

$638K

Identifier

0x5f9aef36...ed39

May 26, 2026, 9:18 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 9:18 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

0¢

Ask

1¢

Spread

1¢

Reported volume

$5K

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Closes

Jun 2, 2026

Family volume

$638K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
0¢8.7K
0¢1.2K
AskSize
3¢94
3¢500
4¢267
56¢275
100¢42
100¢15
100¢10
100¢15

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 2, 2026

Identifier

0x5f9aef36…ed39

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Who will advance from the California Governor primary.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$638K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Steve Hilton 82¢

Current share

1%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Steve Hilton

polymarket · 0x583a505658647660175c2e0aa70b4a460d8c34a6b3f46251ce5f9f46e9886c50

82¢
$53K$1K—

Xavier Becerra

polymarket · 0x50b747a9e8efa400cc053169e43347516b932aaf7b526bdcc8eca7b2b5ddb8a1

82¢
$25K$711—

Tom Steyer

polymarket · 0x9af5f84576108c73b2f5bc58290659dc329d42bc3355ee713a41678e1a0c69f7

41¢
$32K$115—

Chad Bianco

polymarket · 0xff7f825058ce2569c08ecf6847fca743b5e885bea614b2811f065bcab27ea6db

3¢
$45K$691—

Ian Calderon

polymarket · 0x3d050cd99abdc2b68912cf4d4e881170aef24d2d9a60cb95742a788d434aab72

1¢
$114K$0—

Brandon Jones

polymarket · 0x88d4a41111c33e2488fc49f561d67c87f838096ef22db8a897d32d1cb61d86bc

1¢
$42K$0—

Sophia Brink

polymarket · 0xcd93c5c9d713b633cb5ce84e97b4556a07697201084ced32fec5b718ebc1dc98

1¢
$38K$0—

Matt Mahan

polymarket · 0x332e33327686c820dbcf771657c8ffe2ab8bf947f61fd94a49d0a5a9bafbb3e7

1¢
$27K$263—

Derek Grasty

polymarket · 0xe0ea0814959da6d2b5f473a31e6581990645c1d5dfb9894185bbc45186f2e41e

1¢
$24K$0—

Ché Ahn

polymarket · 0x557136ba7a8fe5e76e1e68d25e72eb7a210bb113b9b07fa0da8ad6540cd4fb05

1¢
$19K$165—

Antonio Villaraigosa

polymarket · 0x7ca1634d4f979ba3b1fcb75d1e9516bcca777006019bf5f456a692f37374c3bb

1¢
$14K$5—

Katie Porter

polymarket · 0x1c4370663538d05ac11da9b5371d4951d8788d77e8447941c5141773855c8fc4

1¢
$13K$335—

David Serpa

polymarket · 0x5f9aef36fd8f067d38a2320274f72508bb47b2ad0177eb61ec9743a8d76fed39

1¢
$5K$0—

Eric Swalwell

polymarket · 0x43dcd48e7e7f231c4aea4840b866ea661f22fb9b95ced8b1875f9a0a6f1d177e

0¢
$117K$0—

Thunder Parley

polymarket · 0x8c51f57113fa7c705af2a3b2450a42cf0d0192a49b16db4235fb7d08738a9b07

0¢
$55K$0—

Dylan Colbert

polymarket · 0xf094d665ca7eeaeffc7a03c01588330c630a401c62c7e5a1a55637f1023728ec

0¢
$16K$0—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

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Event Probability API

Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

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World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.